TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs No Hoodwink - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spirit Academyof Spirit Academy, No Hoodwink
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,390
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,751

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,390 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd06c…cdafbacked Spirit Academy43c2,310$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.761,17943.1%508 W · 671 L+41.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Spirit Academy42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16029952.2%156 W · 143 L+19.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked Spirit Academy50c1,598$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.112252.5%64 W · 58 L+17.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No Hoodwink55c1,385$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.831,89447.7%903 W · 991 L+6.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7eb…eef7backed No Hoodwink56c1,305$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.23943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Spirit Academy50c1,250$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62525446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e3b…be27backed No Hoodwink1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1121047.6%100 W · 110 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6daa…954abacked No Hoodwink58c952.38$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.383542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x328e…4393backed No Hoodwink43c930.42$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Spirit Academy47c837.62$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.9232756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked No Hoodwink50c777$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.540644.6%181 W · 225 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebb9…1d15backed No Hoodwink43c690.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009535.8%34 W · 61 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked No Hoodwink66c601.71$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020160.2%121 W · 80 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed No Hoodwink50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30079559.4%472 W · 323 L+3.7wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked No Hoodwink55c541.14$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.1313943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf8…7d2bbacked No Hoodwink60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010541%43 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed Spirit Academy43c466$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.6217952.5%94 W · 85 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked Spirit Academy66c422.42$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.5631052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed Spirit Academy50c421.27$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.982540%10 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed No Hoodwink55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Spirit Academy38c399.99$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24743538.6%168 W · 267 L-1.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b1f…d6d5backed Spirit Academy71c381.74$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.397955.7%44 W · 35 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked No Hoodwink31c365.32$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2887838.3%336 W · 542 L-42.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed No Hoodwink51c356.57$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.7219547.2%92 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked No Hoodwink62c352.58$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.9650850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabd9…dc3abacked No Hoodwink48c314.61$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.2417733.3%59 W · 118 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b9…889fbacked No Hoodwink61c268.96$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1658644.2%38 W · 48 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Spirit Academy61c262.91$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.614763.3%93 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked No Hoodwink56c249.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.9969552.2%363 W · 332 L+45.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Spirit Academy41c242.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.5459456.7%337 W · 257 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Spirit Academy40c227$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.4332241.6%134 W · 188 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed Spirit Academy39c226$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.68045%36 W · 44 L+9.8wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x242c…ddd2backed Spirit Academy45c224.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1921146.9%99 W · 112 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked No Hoodwink48c215.78$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.641,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f15…7691backed No Hoodwink58c215$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.61747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed No Hoodwink54c212.24$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7940933%135 W · 274 L-36.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1407…e56cbacked Spirit Academy51c211.78$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.776240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff77…b6b4backed Spirit Academy50c209.37$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.936152.5%32 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6c…0c16backed No Hoodwink50c194.18$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0418736.4%68 W · 119 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No Hoodwink22c184$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1588938%338 W · 551 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed No Hoodwink54c181.9$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9527950.2%140 W · 139 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Spirit Academy55c173.93$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.571,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fd…3193backed No Hoodwink50c172$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.722842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2965…89ebbacked No Hoodwink54c170.67$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1610251%52 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec96…f5d7backed Spirit Academy54c167.74$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7536452.5%191 W · 173 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ace…3038backed No Hoodwink68c161.9$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11023361.8%144 W · 89 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed No Hoodwink56c150$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8423736.7%87 W · 150 L-17.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No Hoodwink17c137.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8778516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No Hoodwink32c130$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7952638.4%202 W · 324 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed No Hoodwink45c111$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.958847.7%42 W · 46 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f20…934fbacked No Hoodwink57c110$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.712361.8%76 W · 47 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7a5…cf41backed Spirit Academy49c102.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.221127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc622…affdbacked Spirit Academy60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406046.7%28 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked No Hoodwink53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.737654.8%206 W · 170 L+20.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed Spirit Academy52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+37.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3214…cfcbbacked Spirit Academy52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.815761.1%96 W · 61 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d33…6715backed Spirit Academy39c99.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7414344.1%63 W · 80 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked No Hoodwink50c98.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4961249.7%304 W · 308 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Spirit Academy45c98.24$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9826247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1efb…dd8abacked No Hoodwink59c90.09$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.472045%9 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Spirit Academy51c80.24$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0938159.1%225 W · 156 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No Hoodwink37c80$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3678541.7%327 W · 458 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Spirit Academy45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.880244.9%360 W · 442 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked No Hoodwink53c67$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.578647.7%41 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked No Hoodwink33c65.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4811444.7%51 W · 63 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5d9…b188backed Spirit Academy43c64.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.839555.8%53 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca5f…41f5backed No Hoodwink56c63.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.239052.2%47 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed No Hoodwink57c59.62$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7247348.2%228 W · 245 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x422d…7e39backed Spirit Academy48c58.33$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3312452.4%65 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked No Hoodwink33c51.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8312432.3%40 W · 84 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No Hoodwink27c46.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4966545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed No Hoodwink32c43.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.919148.7%93 W · 98 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed No Hoodwink58c42.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.85149%25 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No Hoodwink58c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.220421.1%43 W · 161 L-17.3wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc96…2791backed Spirit Academy54c37.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.276650%33 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x142f…19f9backed No Hoodwink55c34.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9723342.9%100 W · 133 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f1…f02dbacked No Hoodwink64c26.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.142147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ce…e2eabacked No Hoodwink55c26.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93e9…9010backed No Hoodwink49c24.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked No Hoodwink61c20.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7221558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.