Europa Conference League · resolved market
Górnik Zabrze vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26f4a1289ff6288deff38ad4333b9dd95549bdef8464fca34bea59468ac05441
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 55c | 2,095$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.19 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 38c | 821.39$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.13 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 48c | 622$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.55 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 71c | 389$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.41 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 236.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded4…1e6dbacked Under | 34c | 147.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Under | 53c | 130.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 77c | 73.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 23c | 73.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 62.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 50c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 52c | 42.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Górnik Zabrze vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Górnik Zabrze vs. AS Monaco FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Górnik Zabrze vs. AS Monaco FC: AS Monaco FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Górnik Zabrze vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Górnik Zabrze vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Górnik Zabrze vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Górnik Zabrze vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)Górnik Zabrze won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)Górnik Zabrze won
- Spread: Górnik Zabrze (-1.5)AS Monaco FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.