Tennis · resolved market
ITF Uslar: Adrian Oetzbach vs Vincent Marysko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x271104664f805f8f7b2290ee76cc7dc0514910ec003dd442be63552e5f2093c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adrian Oetzbachof Adrian Oetzbach, Vincent Marysko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Vincent Marysko | 55c | 7,552$4,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,170.43 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 44c | 6,821$3,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,817.25 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Adrian Oetzbach | 25c | 308.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.89 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Adrian Oetzbach | 42c | 288.33$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.23 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Vincent Marysko | 35c | 175.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Adrian Oetzbach | 75c | 170.67$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 1,289 | 65.2%841 W · 448 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 53c | 134.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Adrian Oetzbach | 51c | 118.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed Adrian Oetzbach | 29c | 98.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Vincent Marysko | 26c | 92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,766 | 45.9%810 W · 956 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Vincent Marysko | 53c | 64.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Vincent Marysko | 50c | 57.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Adrian Oetzbach | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 514 | 45.5%234 W · 280 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…7841backed Adrian Oetzbach | 46c | 43.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Adrian Oetzbach | 47c | 40.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…9459backed Vincent Marysko | 50c | 39.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Adrian Oetzbach | 50c | 30.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Vincent Marysko | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,730 | 52.2%903 W · 827 L | -8.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.