La Liga · resolved market
AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x274409c5a7531300a86ed625a571ebf78dea7c446917808d226941f316f59b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $280,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $389,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 65c | 100,804$65,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,283.64 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Under | 35c | 100,000$35,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,000 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Under | 35c | 62,089$21,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,731.18 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 27,510$17,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,615.25 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 65c | 25,581$16,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,009.12 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 65c | 7,320$4,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,562 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Over | 65c | 6,274$4,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.57 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…8bebbacked Under | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.3wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Over | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 143 | 48.3%69 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Under | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Under | 36c | 944.44$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 36c | 611.01$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.96 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 65c | 560.9$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.31 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 65c | 292.63$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.42 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed Over | 77c | 176.44$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Over | 75c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Under | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Under | 36c | 91.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Over | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 36c | 86.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3951…c5b2backed Under | 38c | 74.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Over | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad5…bec4backed Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a53dbacked Under | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Over | 61c | 24.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f54…1133backed Over | 76c | 14.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 1.5this page
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- AD Ceuta FC vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.