Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27cbe197b89bac55b1dea04f0e6189c35b6e6077b05b9b4a40fe49259d5fc443
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 447.53$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.36 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 27c | 236.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 205.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 26c | 151$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 140.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 75c | 140.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…9085backed Yes | 26c | 112.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 100.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 13c | 100.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 75c | 97.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 92.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 71c | 87.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 26c | 84.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…12e7backed Yes | 58c | 84.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Yes | 26c | 84.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa387…3d3cbacked Yes | 17c | 75.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 26c | 73.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 201 | 27.4%55 W · 146 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 69c | 62.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 31c | 43.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 46c | 40.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 40.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 31c | 37.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 374 | 34.8%130 W · 244 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 32.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 78c | 26.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,004 | 70.9%712 W · 292 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 74c | 24.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…65c0backed No | 76c | 24.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 23.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 75c | 19.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 75c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 74c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 17.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed No | 75c | 16.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.