Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20da26c19684ec3a1ae651423afab15b0a7aec8bbae5db1b509324eb811c34b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 7c | 1,846$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.59 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 8c | 923.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 60c | 553.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.45 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked No | 59c | 333.57$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.68 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 74c | 332.75$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.32 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 29c | 308.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 881 | 24.1%212 W · 669 L | -40.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 14c | 301.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 201.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.29 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 10c | 197.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.71 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 193.31$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 190.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 52c | 164.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 486 | 39.7%193 W · 293 L | +21.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 158.08$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 24c | 153.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.68 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…9342backed No | 76c | 151.8$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.71 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 65c | 150.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 145.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.69 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 28c | 118.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 300 | 32%96 W · 204 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 84.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 79c | 83.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 15c | 80.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 33c | 77.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 34c | 70.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 46c | 69.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…1c0bbacked Yes | 70c | 65.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…d6ccbacked Yes | 76c | 64.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 28c | 61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 251 | 51%128 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 18c | 60.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…6bc7backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 78c | 54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 26c | 53.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 44c | 48.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 47.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 65c | 46.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 44.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 70c | 40.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +42.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 77c | 38.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 112 | 72.3%81 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 28.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 67c | 28.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 61c | 26.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,004 | 70.9%712 W · 292 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 48c | 24.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 942 | 2.4%23 W · 919 L | -388.2wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb86c…7a3cbacked Yes | 75c | 21.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 78c | 21.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…266bbacked Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 68c | 20.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb621…ca46backed Yes | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…91b2backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.