Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: strongboys vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27ffc3235e0c7d5c78b009b94c09d0ebe5dfb43bc3612a04e9af603dd49ef282
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- strongboysof strongboys, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17f1…af18backed Ilbirs eSports | 1c | 4,444$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…3955backed Ilbirs eSports | 14c | 2,852$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.77 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4a…0b5cbacked strongboys | 78c | 2,339$1,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce97…cd59backed Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 1,483$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…68f9backed Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 1,412$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…b7bbbacked Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 1,374$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…827abacked Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 1,351$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6a…e565backed Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 1,309$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b61…0cebbacked Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 1,278$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…7469backed Ilbirs eSports | 28c | 1,226$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…20f0backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 1,184$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ilbirs eSports | 3c | 1,132$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…2922backed Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 1,050$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d28…7ee5backed Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 1,034$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 1,028$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.4 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…1781backed Ilbirs eSports | 28c | 994$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f20…4948backed strongboys | 75c | 806$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b54…548dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 805$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…d999backed strongboys | 75c | 782$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b49…9c03backed strongboys | 76c | 757$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb289…c1a4backed strongboys | 75c | 735$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…2c59backed strongboys | 76c | 724$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6782…8f58backed strongboys | 75c | 677$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5528…85c5backed strongboys | 75c | 662$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…198fbacked strongboys | 76c | 650$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…9179backed strongboys | 75c | 647$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…bdf2backed strongboys | 75c | 630$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516c…9687backed strongboys | 78c | 630$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d7…44a6backed strongboys | 72c | 621$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…35e4backed strongboys | 72c | 605$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…aea0backed strongboys | 76c | 594$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…7eafbacked strongboys | 78c | 554$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9142…22c0backed strongboys | 75c | 543$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…0924backed strongboys | 70c | 535$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc090…ec1fbacked strongboys | 76c | 525$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…a7a0backed strongboys | 76c | 525$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x462b…7b02backed strongboys | 73c | 522$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…4c89backed strongboys | 72c | 501$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 499.96$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.51 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…c501backed strongboys | 70c | 499$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…2fd4backed strongboys | 72c | 493$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 20c | 441.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed strongboys | 77c | 359.17$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Ilbirs eSports | 17c | 299.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd428…100abacked strongboys | 73c | 283$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ilbirs eSports | 15c | 262.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 219.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Ilbirs eSports | 10c | 210.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Ilbirs eSports | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Ilbirs eSports | 12c | 167.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Ilbirs eSports | 10c | 158.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 8c | 156.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 149.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed strongboys | 77c | 129.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 13c | 110.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed strongboys | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 95.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…3560backed strongboys | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed strongboys | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9801…1ab6backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 47.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 47.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed strongboys | 78c | 43.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…3d64backed strongboys | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed strongboys | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…854dbacked strongboys | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…3c94backed strongboys | 77c | 31.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked strongboys | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked strongboys | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked strongboys | 72c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed strongboys | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed strongboys | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked strongboys | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed strongboys | 78c | 12.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winnerstrongboys won
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winnerstrongboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.