Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: strongboys vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50cb00d588238504e8cafbc5389add646ef9b4bd5201da799a6e7f6f2da7b8a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- strongboysof strongboys, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Ilbirs eSports | 12c | 2,377$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.2 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a37…c99cbacked strongboys | 79c | 1,559$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.35 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 1,443$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.81 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…3955backed strongboys | 68c | 1,163$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.05 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Ilbirs eSports | 4c | 620$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Ilbirs eSports | 34c | 560$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 520$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.34 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…d91cbacked strongboys | 23c | 498.82$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked strongboys | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Ilbirs eSports | 28c | 357.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 357$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed Ilbirs eSports | 15c | 340$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 320$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked strongboys | 73c | 233.07$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…51c2backed Ilbirs eSports | 41c | 209$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ce…fd71backed Ilbirs eSports | 15c | 137.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked strongboys | 63c | 101.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c65…6a0cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Ilbirs eSports | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Ilbirs eSports | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked strongboys | 27c | 74.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed strongboys | 55c | 72.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…e051backed Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed strongboys | 34c | 64.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 56.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 29.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…ad51backed strongboys | 75c | 21.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bstrongboys won
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winnerstrongboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.