World Politics · resolved market
Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2821447fe269c3a10ac59b84e408cfd507736ba33b94bf797f6669dc57e315bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,130 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f86…573cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,313$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…29b5backed Yes | 3c | 4,116$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…51bfbacked Yes | 3c | 3,300$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…96b9backed Yes | 3c | 2,828$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…7f28backed Yes | 3c | 2,652$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…ef16backed Yes | 3c | 2,301$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…7427backed Yes | 3c | 2,283$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d7…10edbacked Yes | 3c | 2,257$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfee…12d5backed Yes | 3c | 2,246$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…68e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,156$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c3…ef80backed Yes | 1c | 2,114$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae72…7a52backed Yes | 1c | 2,053$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +363%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…0971backed Yes | 3c | 2,021$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf076…a736backed Yes | 3c | 1,936$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…7704backed Yes | 1c | 1,910$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8560…ea55backed Yes | 3c | 1,849$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f91…fce7backed Yes | 3c | 1,826$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…6954backed Yes | 3c | 1,822$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec3…0c76backed Yes | 3c | 1,814$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509b…aefabacked Yes | 3c | 1,783$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb9…3965backed Yes | 3c | 1,776$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 1,706$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…f3c0backed Yes | 3c | 1,673$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef9…42b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,610$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…1da4backed Yes | 3c | 1,546$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0242…0cebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,438$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbb…8e8ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,432$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…b890backed Yes | 3c | 1,391$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…27d3backed Yes | 3c | 1,332$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…1842backed Yes | 3c | 1,317$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fa…26c2backed Yes | 3c | 1,184$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e8…4aa6backed Yes | 3c | 1,133$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd3…355ebacked Yes | 3c | 914$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16a…917bbacked Yes | 3c | 738$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f2…ccddbacked Yes | 3c | 678$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4a…3f91backed Yes | 2c | 672$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…fdc5backed Yes | 2c | 662$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf714…0289backed Yes | 3c | 637$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c37…a529backed Yes | 3c | 605$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a2…dd68backed Yes | 3c | 507$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x909a…f13cbacked Yes | 3c | 494$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9c…dd21backed Yes | 3c | 490$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…d5b8backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…6809backed Yes | 3c | 391$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…b82abacked Yes | 3c | 384.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…a9eebacked Yes | 3c | 360$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb068…834bbacked Yes | 3c | 351$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 5c | 221$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?this page
- Will Alfredo Solares win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?No won
- Will Angélica Sosa win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?No won
- Will Félix Oros win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?No won
- Will Ingrid Rosario Schamisseddine win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?No won
- Will José Gary Áñez win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?No won
- Will Manuel Saavedra win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Oscar Vargas win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?No won
- Will Soo Hyun Chung win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.