TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Manuel Saavedra win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$677,676

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $677,676 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd64e…5516backed No6c37,126$2,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,405.833636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-43.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06f5…878dbacked No8c4,339$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4813…f31cbacked No8c4,154$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa386…21ffbacked No8c3,992$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab3f…c097backed No8c3,776$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6928…8c29backed No8c3,696$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.01425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+531.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x126a…b833backed No8c3,585$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6a…cab2backed No8c3,532$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7953…1199backed No7c3,365$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8513…de15backed No8c3,202$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0efd…1567backed Yes80c3,202$2,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.971154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No13c3,169$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.876883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…74f8backed No8c3,141$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe978…a454backed No7c3,138$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x683f…27dbbacked No8c3,128$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c3,100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.14440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd77c…7774backed No7c2,890$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8df…cfdebacked No5c2,812$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf994…7b4cbacked No8c2,785$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6bf…6a05backed No7c2,777$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.39425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6921…a53cbacked No7c2,651$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc361…1627backed No8c2,552$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeef3…17bcbacked No8c2,520$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f67…52e7backed No9c2,514$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa809…f7e9backed No7c2,507$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a26…ca5cbacked No6c2,385$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe56c…3483backed No7c2,358$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee1f…ad21backed No7c2,278$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1d…bba6backed No8c2,222$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcb…c68bbacked No8c2,215$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd055…98bdbacked No6c2,201$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x169c…6aa9backed No8c2,178$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8db…b622backed No5c2,140$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…fdfcbacked No8c2,104$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7958…8c65backed No4c2,090$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7763…569cbacked No7c2,012$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…6e23backed No6c1,927$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa196…3b63backed No8c1,891$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.28520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+387.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d98…cacbbacked No8c1,821$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8584…ba67backed No8c1,785$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4300…e97dbacked No8c1,774$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde89…1871backed No5c1,766$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a5e…9c4dbacked No5c1,715$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9356…6857backed No8c1,714$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…8403backed No6c1,713$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdb…5d13backed No5c1,712$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2708…1fa1backed No7c1,708$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5acb…45c4backed No8c1,698$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa456…ca24backed No6c1,655$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x936a…50bfbacked No8c1,636$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+713%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4976…d25cbacked Yes78c1,620$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.621241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4632…8f1bbacked No4c1,596$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b80…f85bbacked No5c1,565$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e82…ce23backed No8c1,555$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+1,119.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdea4…035ebacked No5c1,534$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2f…da4cbacked No8c1,509$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7af9…9445backed No7c1,475$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…d593backed No5c1,470$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e86…03b5backed No8c1,463$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ad…65fdbacked No1c1,452$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x382b…7769backed No8c1,430$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5234…2176backed No8c1,362$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+1,182.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bdb…dd36backed No8c1,355$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f06…a9d9backed No8c1,339$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xed49…4619backed No6c1,322$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f5b…717abacked No8c1,317$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4424…99b2backed No4c1,307$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b2…53ebbacked No6c1,261$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbdd…1072backed No4c1,240$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x815d…0ffbbacked No8c1,234$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x007d…97b9backed No5c1,234$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbd22…33b1backed No8c1,217$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4c8a…4354backed No7c1,154$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11ac…840fbacked No7c1,144$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf638…bfb9backed No8c1,144$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56bd…dee9backed No8c1,129$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…a73ebacked No8c1,123$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf224…3fdfbacked No7c1,109$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f1e…d1acbacked No5c1,108$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47bb…e279backed No5c1,099$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d3…e516backed No8c1,096$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x148a…4faebacked No6c1,089$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde20…a405backed No8c1,087$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b72…244cbacked No5c1,074$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d57…4e54backed No5c1,029$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e84…a3d0backed No7c1,028$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9637…eb28backed No8c1,006$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4640…57d4backed No8c1,003$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5d…a7f9backed No4c985$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked No8c982.08$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.06812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc914…3da8backed No8c957$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed9b…ba1cbacked No8c947$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4811…7acbbacked No5c909$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057c…0306backed No8c908$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7879…755dbacked No8c904$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba9…57febacked No8c903$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6193…6b2fbacked No7c900$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaea…d08fbacked No6c889$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1906…ae3abacked No8c879$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb538…6160backed No6c841$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.