UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28aec0d1b20d291eac13ce2c6b5eed49eca700a352adc57271506ef0c5cb77dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Under | 40c | 10,072$4,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,040 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 68c | 10,000$6,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,245 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under | 34c | 3,073$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Over | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 66c | 1,564$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.03 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 59c | 1,559$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.4 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked Under | 33c | 1,020$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.58 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Over | 3c | 1,012$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.67 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Under | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 64c | 355.87$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 68c | 257$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.24 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Under | 38c | 127.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…77e3backed Under | 34c | 55.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Under | 34c | 55.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…8c4abacked Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Card)Asu Almabayev won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.