UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x272bd80b7bd9b3a2b3c2bfe2749be73d92d9ad0e2ee8f2b0c6080b2ea42f6810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Asu Almabayevof Asu Almabayev, Charles Johnson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $420,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $433,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Charles Johnson | 26c | 176,284$45,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,273.37 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Asu Almabayev | 74c | 95,672$71,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,553.02 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Asu Almabayev | 72c | 50,433$36,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,122.44 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Charles Johnson | 28c | 50,000$14,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,999.94 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Asu Almabayev | 74c | 46,169$34,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,004.02 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Charles Johnson | 15c | 43,302$6,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,378.31 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Asu Almabayev | 75c | 9,435$7,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,358.85 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Asu Almabayev | 73c | 7,065$5,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,907.48 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Charles Johnson | 6c | 6,253$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.63 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed Asu Almabayev | 75c | 5,397$4,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.29 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…0119backed Asu Almabayev | 75c | 5,076$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…9889backed Charles Johnson | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Asu Almabayev | 74c | 4,500$3,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.99 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Charles Johnson | 21c | 4,200$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…49e6backed Asu Almabayev | 74c | 4,073$3,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.04 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Asu Almabayev | 72c | 4,014$2,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.96 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Charles Johnson | 27c | 3,219$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.13 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Charles Johnson | 27c | 2,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…8618backed Charles Johnson | 10c | 2,400$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.04 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Charles Johnson | 27c | 2,307$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.83 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…4652backed Charles Johnson | 27c | 2,222$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.94 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b12…d642backed Charles Johnson | 15c | 2,200$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.83 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Charles Johnson | 4c | 2,157$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1507…e175backed Charles Johnson | 9c | 2,055$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.77 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Charles Johnson | 29c | 2,024$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.89 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa476…8cfcbacked Asu Almabayev | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…ae6fbacked Charles Johnson | 26c | 1,923$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Charles Johnson | 26c | 1,907$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.62 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Charles Johnson | 24c | 1,743$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.37 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Charles Johnson | 5c | 1,680$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Asu Almabayev | 74c | 1,650$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Charles Johnson | 12c | 1,635$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked Charles Johnson | 23c | 1,516$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Asu Almabayev | 74c | 1,483$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.01 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Charles Johnson | 4c | 1,470$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Charles Johnson | 4c | 1,370$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…9867backed Asu Almabayev | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…6ea2backed Charles Johnson | 28c | 1,230$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.09 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…c054backed Asu Almabayev | 75c | 1,205$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Charles Johnson | 27c | 1,151$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…4ba6backed Charles Johnson | 26c | 1,115$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…3b95backed Asu Almabayev | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.13 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Charles Johnson | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…1afebacked Charles Johnson | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Charles Johnson | 29c | 1,000$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…9390backed Asu Almabayev | 74c | 999.98$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Asu Almabayev | 73c | 960.06$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.06 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Asu Almabayev | 71c | 806.71$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.71 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d4…dcc3backed Asu Almabayev | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…fac1backed Charles Johnson | 26c | 770$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Asu Almabayev | 74c | 763.98$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.63 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…ed67backed Charles Johnson | 29c | 762.16$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed Charles Johnson | 5c | 745$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…b56bbacked Charles Johnson | 26c | 700$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…9583backed Charles Johnson | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…1b86backed Charles Johnson | 25c | 661.21$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Charles Johnson | 27c | 643.86$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.84 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Charles Johnson | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Charles Johnson | 29c | 600$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Charles Johnson | 25c | 599.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed Asu Almabayev | 69c | 562$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.22 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e43…6583backed Asu Almabayev | 75c | 523.76$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Charles Johnson | 15c | 499.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Charles Johnson | 27c | 496.21$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.05 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed Asu Almabayev | 72c | 487$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.36 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a70…4865backed Asu Almabayev | 72c | 486.11$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Asu Almabayev | 72c | 486.11$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…36f4backed Asu Almabayev | 72c | 486.11$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Asu Almabayev | 73c | 485$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.95 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed Asu Almabayev | 75c | 466.67$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Asu Almabayev | 69c | 464.8$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.04 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…a40abacked Asu Almabayev | 72c | 430.56$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Charles Johnson | 8c | 425.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb916…f248backed Charles Johnson | 9c | 425$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9572…efffbacked Asu Almabayev | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c2…ac84backed Charles Johnson | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa873…5149backed Asu Almabayev | 75c | 383.44$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Charles Johnson | 29c | 361.43$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8546…35b8backed Charles Johnson | 9c | 347.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…231dbacked Charles Johnson | 29c | 343.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Charles Johnson | 27c | 335.61$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf334…bdefbacked Asu Almabayev | 75c | 333.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…61b3backed Asu Almabayev | 72c | 313.2$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569c…140dbacked Asu Almabayev | 80c | 313.1$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Asu Almabayev | 73c | 311.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Charles Johnson | 28c | 302.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…3d50backed Charles Johnson | 27c | 292.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Asu Almabayev | 75c | 287.5$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 102 | 70.6%72 W · 30 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Charles Johnson | 12c | 284.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Charles Johnson | 25c | 284.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…239ebacked Asu Almabayev | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…a6edbacked Asu Almabayev | 73c | 275.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Asu Almabayev | 69c | 266.28$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Charles Johnson | 17c | 262.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Charles Johnson | 11c | 258.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Charles Johnson | 26c | 253.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…77e3backed Charles Johnson | 14c | 245.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce6…f60abacked Asu Almabayev | 72c | 243.06$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Charles Johnson | 6c | 240$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1a…a2bfbacked Asu Almabayev | 70c | 231.71$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.