TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Asu Almabayevof Asu Almabayev, Charles Johnson
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$420,843
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$433,177

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,843 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Charles Johnson26c176,284$45,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,273.377454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Asu Almabayev74c95,672$71,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,553.0214558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Asu Almabayev72c50,433$36,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,122.448744.8%39 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Charles Johnson28c50,000$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,999.9429151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Asu Almabayev74c46,169$34,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,004.0215444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Charles Johnson15c43,302$6,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,378.3128043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Asu Almabayev75c9,435$7,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,358.853650%18 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Asu Almabayev73c7,065$5,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.485152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Charles Johnson6c6,253$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.6333132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8bfe…2d74backed Asu Almabayev75c5,397$4,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.296172.1%44 W · 17 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e6c…0119backed Asu Almabayev75c5,076$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.681250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dc6…9889backed Charles Johnson27c5,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3504942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Asu Almabayev74c4,500$3,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.9917055.3%94 W · 76 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Charles Johnson21c4,200$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8704820.8%10 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b1f…49e6backed Asu Almabayev74c4,073$3,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.043259.4%19 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Asu Almabayev72c4,014$2,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.9622661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Charles Johnson27c3,219$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.133551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Charles Johnson27c2,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67525251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43e0…8618backed Charles Johnson10c2,400$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.048434.5%29 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Charles Johnson27c2,307$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.837159.2%42 W · 29 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4f…4652backed Charles Johnson27c2,222$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.946354%34 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b12…d642backed Charles Johnson15c2,200$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.835162.7%32 W · 19 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Charles Johnson4c2,157$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9215537.4%58 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1507…e175backed Charles Johnson9c2,055$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7710746.7%50 W · 57 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Charles Johnson29c2,024$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.8916244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa476…8cfcbacked Asu Almabayev75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5002774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc80…ae6fbacked Charles Johnson26c1,923$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Charles Johnson26c1,907$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.6213836.2%50 W · 88 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Charles Johnson24c1,743$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.3737152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Charles Johnson5c1,680$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2254%1 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-80%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Asu Almabayev74c1,650$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42935664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked Charles Johnson12c1,635$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005747.4%27 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked Charles Johnson23c1,516$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3509637.5%36 W · 60 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Asu Almabayev74c1,483$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.0116158.4%94 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Charles Johnson4c1,470$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8135848.3%173 W · 185 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Charles Johnson4c1,370$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.265418.5%10 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1c…9867backed Asu Almabayev75c1,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.332152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf85f…6ea2backed Charles Johnson28c1,230$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.094339.5%17 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…c054backed Asu Almabayev75c1,205$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.19875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Charles Johnson27c1,151$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30626140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16fa…4ba6backed Charles Johnson26c1,115$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.42060%12 W · 8 L+4.9wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+70.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc6e1…3b95backed Asu Almabayev76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.136462.5%40 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Charles Johnson26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x726b…1afebacked Charles Johnson10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002552%13 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Charles Johnson29c1,000$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28620837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Asu Almabayev74c999.98$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2606953.6%37 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f86…4fa9backed Asu Almabayev73c960.06$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.0614560%87 W · 58 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac65…cfe6backed Asu Almabayev71c806.71$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.715463%34 W · 20 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d4…dcc3backed Asu Almabayev75c800$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7650…fac1backed Charles Johnson26c770$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.26172.1%44 W · 17 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Asu Almabayev74c763.98$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.6324356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed Charles Johnson29c762.16$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.031526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaca4…f852backed Charles Johnson5c745$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb941…b56bbacked Charles Johnson26c700$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1827644.7%34 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5941…9583backed Charles Johnson29c689.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006654.5%36 W · 30 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6ad…1b86backed Charles Johnson25c661.21$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.35330.2%16 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Charles Johnson27c643.86$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.842250%11 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Charles Johnson16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Charles Johnson29c600$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17733948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Charles Johnson25c599.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15042042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed Asu Almabayev69c562$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.225547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed Asu Almabayev75c523.76$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.941181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Charles Johnson15c499.96$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9937754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Charles Johnson27c496.21$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.057263.9%46 W · 26 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea39…9d34backed Asu Almabayev72c487$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.362941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a70…4865backed Asu Almabayev72c486.11$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.112458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Asu Almabayev72c486.11$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.116056.7%34 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfa…36f4backed Asu Almabayev72c486.11$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.114057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a49…651abacked Asu Almabayev73c485$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.955950.8%30 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91bc…28d6backed Asu Almabayev75c466.67$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.674658.7%27 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed Asu Almabayev69c464.8$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.043444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe450…a40abacked Asu Almabayev72c430.56$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Charles Johnson8c425.13$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.012646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb916…f248backed Charles Johnson9c425$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Asu Almabayev74c400$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1041050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c2…ac84backed Charles Johnson5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa873…5149backed Asu Almabayev75c383.44$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.86683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Charles Johnson29c361.43$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7790553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8546…35b8backed Charles Johnson9c347.58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.281942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f49…231dbacked Charles Johnson29c343.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.763745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Charles Johnson27c335.61$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.853636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf334…bdefbacked Asu Almabayev75c333.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.337159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4711…61b3backed Asu Almabayev72c313.2$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x569c…140dbacked Asu Almabayev80c313.1$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Asu Almabayev73c311.99$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2436655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Charles Johnson28c302.18$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.612450%12 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Charles Johnson27c292.68$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788856.8%50 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Asu Almabayev75c287.5$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1210270.6%72 W · 30 L+10.5wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+11.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Charles Johnson12c284.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7426736%96 W · 171 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Charles Johnson25c284.22$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9129133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…239ebacked Asu Almabayev72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.782065%13 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x083c…a6edbacked Asu Almabayev73c275.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.491872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Asu Almabayev69c266.28$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5556450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Charles Johnson17c262.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453941%16 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Charles Johnson11c258.89$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3438353.3%204 W · 179 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Charles Johnson26c253.04$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7918647.3%88 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f19…77e3backed Charles Johnson14c245.3$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ce6…f60abacked Asu Almabayev72c243.06$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.062254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Charles Johnson6c240$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1a…a2bfbacked Asu Almabayev70c231.71$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.715667.9%38 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.