NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28cb73247bf465a6fd5955dde25ee17412cf15e2cf0108e2589bc6b6e28cc790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 54c | 2,340$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.4 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 1,433$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.99 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 48c | 1,031$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.88 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…5c3fbacked Over | 52c | 1,031$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.88 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfd…a801backed Over | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x709a…52e5backed Under | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf050…91debacked Over | 53c | 470$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…ca4ebacked Under | 47c | 470$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…7b38backed Under | 47c | 450$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…1265backed Over | 53c | 450$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 48c | 376.92$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.92 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 52c | 327.92$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.4 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 54c | 272.22$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.22 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 51c | 100.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked Over | 54c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…9cc3backed Over | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Under | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Over | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…a088backed Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Wild vs. CapitalsCapitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.