Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28eef06e597b1e8ba5c27637853d8c3f998852bd5edca0ef2bbed182eea749c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9afd…8843backed Yes | 2c | 3,179$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 13cpaid | +204.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,893$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 1c | 2,296$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…cf1ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 4c | 1,695$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec6…1f2bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,603$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…d597backed Yes | 4c | 1,285$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…0754backed Yes | 2c | 1,029$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…1624backed Yes | 2c | 941.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 3c | 665.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309e…acbebacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62be…187bbacked Yes | 5c | 226.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.