College Football · resolved market
Mercer vs. Auburn
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28f61e041e652c82784cdd12f5f9d8acd8c451e130e6c5ad393d9261d4c56aa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auburnof Mercer, Auburn
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Mercer | 5c | 25,835$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.57 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Mercer | 5c | 5,096$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.86 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…0381backed Mercer | 11c | 5,000$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc49…0daabacked Mercer | 5c | 2,080$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Mercer | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Mercer | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Mercer | 5c | 1,152$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Mercer | 5c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd6…d879backed Mercer | 10c | 968.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…a1e9backed Mercer | 12c | 806.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mercer | 5c | 567$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Mercer | 5c | 499.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…d559backed Mercer | 5c | 346.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Mercer | 5c | 310$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed Mercer | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdb…1598backed Mercer | 19c | 134.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.