Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet between 50 and 59 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x291eeb9ed93003f041e8ce45d5a02005718395f57a292879808150372c5a5e83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 21c | 1,105$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 24c | 1,089$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 30c | 939.57$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…00f3backed Yes | 10c | 239.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830d…e1f4backed No | 74c | 216$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 35c | 210$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 79c | 207.08$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 18c | 202.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 19c | 145$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…0578backed Yes | 31c | 143.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…59bfbacked Yes | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…6739backed Yes | 29c | 124.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…5908backed Yes | 38c | 78.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 35c | 56.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…c254backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 28c | 36.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +187%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef6…32e8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…a4b3backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet between 50 and 59 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 40 and 49 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 60 and 69 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 70 and 79 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 80 and 89 times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet between 90 and 99 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 40 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.