College Football · resolved market
Spread: Toledo (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x292962ea69e30925f8a8e1578b5493db5e10da64143568145e8d6c1bead7c108
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toledoof Toledo, Miami (OH)
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Toledo | 55c | 29,046$15,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,201.63 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Miami (OH) | 47c | 11,039$5,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,188.34 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Miami (OH) | 43c | 10,200$4,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,436.9 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Toledo | 55c | 5,887$3,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,649.15 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Miami (OH) | 45c | 4,926$2,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.66 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Toledo | 56c | 2,304$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.63 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Miami (OH) | 45c | 2,000$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Miami (OH) | 44c | 1,256$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.64 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked Miami (OH) | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Miami (OH) | 47c | 1,110$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.7 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Miami (OH) | 47c | 853$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.91 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Miami (OH) | 44c | 773.08$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.15 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Miami (OH) | 43c | 546.17$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.58 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Toledo | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Miami (OH) | 44c | 356$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.64 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Miami (OH) | 45c | 255$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Miami (OH) | 47c | 215$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Toledo | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Miami (OH) | 45c | 145$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Miami (OH) | 41c | 93.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Toledo | 59c | 93.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Miami (OH) | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Miami (OH) | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Miami (OH) | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…a6a2backed Toledo | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542f…309dbacked Toledo | 53c | 19.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toledo (-3.5)this page
- O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Toledo (-4.5)Toledo won
- Spread: Toledo (-5.5)Toledo won
- Toledo vs. Miami (OH)Toledo won
- Toledo vs. Miami (OH): O/U 45.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.