TailMyPicks

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College Football · resolved market

Toledo vs. Miami (OH)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toledoof Toledo, Miami (OH)
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$328,113
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$319,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,113 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x090a…01b4backed Miami (OH)34c45,042$15,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,314.3711846.6%55 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Toledo66c44,570$29,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,119.2781847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Toledo65c38,496$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,495.5319362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Miami (OH)34c34,000$11,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,56012055%66 W · 54 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Miami (OH)35c32,466$11,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,363.2116635.5%59 W · 107 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Miami (OH)35c30,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,5001030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Toledo71c29,801$21,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,730.1658850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Toledo65c23,653$15,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,324.3529249%143 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Miami (OH)34c21,723$7,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,369.013542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06fd…c0bebacked Miami (OH)32c18,890$6,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,097.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Toledo65c18,556$12,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,525.8534250.3%172 W · 170 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Toledo66c15,000$9,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1005152.9%27 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Toledo67c9,393$6,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,105.2538450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe48a…3ce6backed Miami (OH)35c8,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.94333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+122.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Toledo65c7,920$5,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.542,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Toledo67c7,729$5,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,566.3817443.7%76 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Miami (OH)33c7,284$2,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,436.9425629.3%75 W · 181 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Miami (OH)35c6,441$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.3420450.5%103 W · 101 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Miami (OH)35c5,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75038546%177 W · 208 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Toledo65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,75029055.2%160 W · 130 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Toledo66c4,545$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.455152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Miami (OH)34c4,400$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5122245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Miami (OH)35c4,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.9617837.6%67 W · 111 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Toledo67c3,849$2,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.2130949.5%153 W · 156 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Toledo66c3,642$2,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.2821644.9%97 W · 119 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Miami (OH)35c3,477$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.031747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Toledo66c3,156$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.992737%10 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Miami (OH)35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0504654.3%25 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23e5…d41fbacked Miami (OH)9c3,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2703119.4%6 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Miami (OH)35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009053.3%48 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Toledo66c2,714$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.94746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toledo77c2,581$1,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.3721538.6%83 W · 132 L-0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Miami (OH)36c2,437$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.4749443.7%216 W · 278 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e2d…05e4backed Miami (OH)13c2,318$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+41.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Miami (OH)33c2,200$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72624348.1%117 W · 126 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Miami (OH)15c2,093$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.4962843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Miami (OH)1c1,999$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6694.3%3 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toledo76c1,828$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.6140244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Miami (OH)36c1,800$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.2434529.9%103 W · 242 L-21.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a73…d55dbacked Toledo63c1,624$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaca…c1f9backed Miami (OH)37c1,622$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Miami (OH)37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Miami (OH)34c1,439$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.967545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Miami (OH)37c1,351$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007146.5%33 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f3d…c9d9backed Toledo63c1,212$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Miami (OH)36c1,206$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.2410742.1%45 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Toledo64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36010851.9%56 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba8…ab96backed Miami (OH)36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Miami (OH)35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35012450.8%63 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22e6…26efbacked Toledo65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dad…805abacked Miami (OH)35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed Toledo67c900$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2971947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71d1…eb8ebacked Miami (OH)37c830$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Toledo66c800$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2721369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Toledo65c800$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2267…58afbacked Toledo64c796.88$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.88977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+59.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c74…76d8backed Miami (OH)37c783.78$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Miami (OH)34c735.29$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd368…1889backed Miami (OH)33c675$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2226241.9%26 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Toledo79c657.37$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.7164841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Toledo66c653.85$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.8520039.5%79 W · 121 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Miami (OH)26c580.42$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.913625%9 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5276…74ddbacked Miami (OH)35c571.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Toledo75c525.82$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.8955350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Miami (OH)35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17511436%41 W · 73 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3445…7488backed Miami (OH)19c498.95$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Toledo66c484.85$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.851070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Toledo65c461.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.541080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+30.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Toledo66c454.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.5529351.9%152 W · 141 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Toledo72c449.28$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.7926939.8%107 W · 162 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2176…9b67backed Miami (OH)24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5daa…6a15backed Toledo63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Toledo65c384.62$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.62875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d3d…bdddbacked Miami (OH)37c380$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb6…9aabbacked Toledo66c378.79$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.791338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-26.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0df8…3e3dbacked Miami (OH)16c359.65$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.014736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Miami (OH)37c337.84$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1256650%33 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Toledo66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.035060%30 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Miami (OH)34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10213242.4%56 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb36…9545backed Miami (OH)34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10216945.6%77 W · 92 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Miami (OH)34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10213253.8%71 W · 61 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Miami (OH)34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10228032.9%92 W · 188 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Miami (OH)34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Toledo68c281.9$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2420553.7%110 W · 95 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Miami (OH)37c280.16$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6621348.8%104 W · 109 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Miami (OH)36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005414.8%8 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Miami (OH)38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010445.2%47 W · 57 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8147…ab6cbacked Miami (OH)23c259.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+28.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f79…7ed4backed Miami (OH)36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727335.6%26 W · 47 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…3e9fbacked Miami (OH)36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727628.9%22 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2816…0730backed Miami (OH)37c200$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736031.7%19 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd58b…48e8backed Miami (OH)35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702030%6 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6440…2036backed Toledo64c180$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6897…d88fbacked Miami (OH)37c180$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Miami (OH)36c156.94$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.513845.7%63 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked Miami (OH)35c155$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.251855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed Miami (OH)38c144.01$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.121629.2%63 W · 153 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4806…c329backed Miami (OH)38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Toledo67c109.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.311844.1%52 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Miami (OH)32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3247331.5%149 W · 324 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.