Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x293afedb41c8e4de23273420eef078afc7fe36c37e924d3c8d693d3ff5d1bf24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 59c | 1,319$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.45 | 1,615 | 34.9%564 W · 1,051 L | -28.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.27 | 288 | 24.7%71 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 21c | 897.6$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.13 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 74c | 662.26$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.89 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 61c | 503.19$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.5 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Yes | 39c | 425.75$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.07 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Yes | 39c | 348.73$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.72 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…f708backed Yes | 46c | 306.82$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…ad77backed Yes | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…ef5ebacked Yes | 40c | 240.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.04 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x688c…2482backed No | 60c | 210.7$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 39c | 152.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 77c | 151.95$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 18c | 127.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…4c5abacked Yes | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Yes | 76c | 119.95$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Yes | 40c | 115.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 78c | 94.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 220 | 40.5%89 W · 131 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…a3d3backed No | 62c | 60.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…980abacked Yes | 38c | 50.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…6681backed Yes | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked No | 60c | 48.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 61 | 75.4%46 W · 15 L | +12.0wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +35%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 49c | 44.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +21.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x840d…3708backed No | 61c | 42.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed No | 63c | 39.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…b24abacked No | 60c | 36.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 60c | 33.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked No | 61c | 33.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…b27bbacked No | 60c | 32.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a19…9db9backed Yes | 39c | 31.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 61c | 30.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 39c | 30.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 419 | 56.3%236 W · 183 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f4…2df9backed Yes | 79c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 68cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United FC leading at halftime?this page
- Brentford FC leading at halftime?No won
- Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.