CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Venom vs illwill (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2972dfa852102790bcbdc08fa81b8b4345e2adec2d8b190473cd5e786ec8b3c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof Venom, illwill
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed Venom | 68c | 10,777$7,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,378.7 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed illwill | 32c | 4,300$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,937 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed illwill | 31c | 1,900$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked illwill | 31c | 1,401$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.74 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed illwill | 31c | 1,261$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.18 | 387 | 39.5%153 W · 234 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Venom | 28c | 1,049$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed illwill | 32c | 938.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.01 | 462 | 43.3%200 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked illwill | 72c | 869.38$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.95 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed illwill | 32c | 550$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9801…1ab6backed illwill | 32c | 378$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.04 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed illwill | 32c | 212.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 388 | 35.8%139 W · 249 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Venom | 69c | 192$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed illwill | 32c | 143.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 178 | 47.2%84 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Venom | 36c | 102.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…c63bbacked Venom | 69c | 101$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Venom | 68c | 53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…0074backed illwill | 32c | 53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed illwill | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe02e…c5febacked Venom | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ea…5c5dbacked illwill | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked illwill | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked illwill | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 581 | 49.2%286 W · 295 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Venom | 69c | 19.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.