NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2981110a8848da0f6376122ac0039b68f7941d1ad5d9c75b81aa8ff6408b8eb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Sharks | 58c | 4,000$2,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,317.19 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights | 44c | 3,265$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.56 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Sharks | 57c | 1,750$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.5 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Golden Knights | 42c | 1,505$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.81 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Sharks | 57c | 1,222$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.75 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Golden Knights | 42c | 830.11$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.46 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Sharks | 57c | 647.7$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.19 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Golden Knights | 43c | 618.81$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.83 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Golden Knights | 43c | 399.98$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.99 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Golden Knights | 46c | 304.35$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.35 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Sharks | 54c | 298.07$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.96 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Golden Knights | 43c | 297.67$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.67 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Golden Knights | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Golden Knights | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Golden Knights | 42c | 101$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Sharks | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Golden Knights | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Sharks | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -8.0wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Golden Knights | 42c | 72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Sharks | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Golden Knights | 42c | 54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Golden Knights | 42c | 54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Sharks | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Sharks | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ff…94f5backed Sharks | 58c | 39.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Golden Knights | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Golden Knights | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Golden Knights | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Golden Knights | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Golden Knights | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Golden Knights | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Golden Knights | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 189 | 46%87 W · 102 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Golden Knights | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Sharks | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc421…724cbacked Golden Knights | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…709abacked Sharks | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Sharks vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Sharks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.