Olympics · resolved market
Will Adam Peaty (GBR) win Gold in Men's 100m Breaststroke?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29c7ca62b054f8558dd5e23891477838282d98636019ab4dbe9e5a774ecc00b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc714…3a42backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…e6a5backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 21c | 799.98$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked No | 37c | 509.86$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c58…01aebacked Yes | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…552fbacked No | 39c | 354.34$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.34 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 35c | 183.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 38c | 160.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Yes | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…d760backed Yes | 67c | 149.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03da…7907backed Yes | 65c | 119.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 63c | 82.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Yes | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 64c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0b…7ba1backed Yes | 68c | 73.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ca…a694backed No | 30c | 73.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +167.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…1d90backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…c433backed Yes | 65c | 63.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…8ae2backed Yes | 68c | 56.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…dc45backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 38c | 50.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…5383backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7d…0ab0backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 31c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x896b…11c4backed Yes | 77c | 43.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b4…15fdbacked Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…6e54backed Yes | 62c | 27.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45be…33b4backed Yes | 62c | 27.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b5…4f84backed Yes | 62c | 20.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…41c6backed Yes | 62c | 18.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd375…d575backed Yes | 62c | 17.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437e…2144backed Yes | 62c | 17.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…11cabacked Yes | 79c | 15.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adam Peaty (GBR) win Gold in Men's 100m Breaststroke?this page
- Will Arno Kamminga (NED) win Gold in Men's 100m Breaststroke?No won
- Will Haiyang Qin (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Breaststroke?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.