Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a696ebc2700b3ad114279b8a943d3af396d55a143156bec0a9450d1340acf5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,016$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 6c | 578.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 369.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 44c | 337.93$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.61 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 5c | 298.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 8c | 267.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 8c | 267.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 15c | 230.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 189.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 179.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 173.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 9c | 172.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 169$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 29c | 159.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 9c | 125.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 18c | 120.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 15c | 111.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 39c | 96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf6…e15abacked Yes | 16c | 82.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 76.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 72.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 54.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 30c | 45.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 59c | 44.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466c…05f0backed Yes | 31c | 37.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 61c | 27.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 60c | 27.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…e7dcbacked Yes | 59c | 22.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed Yes | 76c | 20.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.