Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a69c1c785667a4182f82c75df04bfdb653158bf5d95530aa338f29fe8742055
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 76c | 662.13$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.92 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 46c | 401.13$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.43 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 25c | 331.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 18c | 242.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 238.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 70c | 238.07$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 225.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 28c | 207.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 31c | 182.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 28c | 176.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 31c | 172.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 50c | 153.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 22c | 152$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 136.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 117.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 33c | 101.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 100.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 74c | 100.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 23c | 97.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 67c | 89.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 86.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d7…9679backed Yes | 26c | 80.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 41c | 74.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 25c | 72.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 72.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd645…a7a3backed Yes | 24c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 20c | 59.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 63c | 54.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb912…ee20backed Yes | 21c | 54.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 54.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 71c | 42.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 70c | 42.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4f…dfe9backed Yes | 24c | 41.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 62c | 40.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x632f…14aabacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…d642backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 78c | 28.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd27…0af7backed No | 72c | 27.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 59c | 23.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 57c | 21.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 66c | 19.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 79c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…5968backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.