Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c22a52a5df662a28d7b0ce6f484c0f944e6e2ca148b0454a7ca245037b5512b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x020c…0c98backed No | 1c | 2,496$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 61c | 691.97$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.41 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 55c | 440.93$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.74 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 43c | 308.6$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.4 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 23c | 307.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.43 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 66c | 275.94$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 39c | 265.73$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.75 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 155.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 46c | 155.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 148.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 16c | 106.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb912…ee20backed Yes | 39c | 103.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 64c | 102.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 92.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 52c | 87.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 49c | 86.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 37c | 86.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 33c | 86.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 36c | 82.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 34c | 74.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 59c | 74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…a371backed No | 67c | 73.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 74c | 67.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 35c | 65.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 63.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 38c | 61.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 56.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 58c | 54.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 37c | 53.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…77bebacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 58c | 47.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 46.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 34c | 45.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…9dbabacked Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 58c | 41.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 38c | 40.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 54c | 36.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…da0dbacked No | 55c | 36.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 59c | 36.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 55c | 36.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…958bbacked Yes | 70c | 36.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26e5…a381backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked Yes | 41c | 33.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…8ab5backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 47c | 26.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e3…0e11backed No | 60c | 24.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 58c | 21.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 50c | 21.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 58c | 20.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 64c | 18.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…501dbacked No | 60c | 17.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 45°F or below on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.