Mls · resolved market
Minnesota United FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2af6bd439c927a12ada72a54b3f52a9b8748905355ef807806a2a4e397e83e54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 55c | 1,088$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.4 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 1,014$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.81 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 54c | 881.48$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 46c | 677.06$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.61 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 44c | 554$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.72 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 205.41$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 79c | 173.47$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 130.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 88.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 60c | 83.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 40c | 73.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 40.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota United FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5this page
- Minnesota United FC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Minnesota United FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.