MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2afd8fb4f826c7887460e57a2ecafe2d26cfbb12d6f034b9c3c151c84e65d789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 21,505$9,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,376 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 16,651$9,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,315.77 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 3,606$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.76 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75e…96ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 1,669$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 1,661$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.31 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 416.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.12 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked San Diego Padres | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 396.93$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.83 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb215…b819backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 54.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 34.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +7.7wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…7cd4backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a10…556cbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 28.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.