Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $410-$415 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2affa94003335233bb4399e54c3010a8f824b0bfe84bd2a09fc5a0642d99b77c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,356 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb724…fdddbacked Yes | 8c | 2,402$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…df24backed Yes | 8c | 2,194$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…a0febacked Yes | 8c | 1,540$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…9ec5backed Yes | 1c | 1,399$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…63b0backed Yes | 8c | 1,349$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…9046backed Yes | 8c | 1,211$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a5…c6e3backed Yes | 8c | 1,173$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…3b4ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,061$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,029$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd276…9d69backed Yes | 8c | 949$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89c…7cc7backed Yes | 8c | 914$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe141…93a0backed Yes | 9c | 668$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5e…9c4dbacked Yes | 8c | 649$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…7a4abacked Yes | 9c | 645$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…12aabacked Yes | 8c | 637$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4632…8f1bbacked Yes | 9c | 596$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca4…1defbacked Yes | 10c | 565.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe078…7f3cbacked Yes | 9c | 537$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4424…99b2backed Yes | 9c | 478$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…1072backed Yes | 9c | 475$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b2…ed13backed Yes | 8c | 389.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 310.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…d913backed Yes | 8c | 284$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…3b30backed Yes | 12c | 257.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $410-$415 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $375-$380 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $380-$385 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $390-$395 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $395-$400 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $400-$405 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $405-$410 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$375 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$420 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.