CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG Academy - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b8d2f0639b3e5abf5d8a8ac939e37a8df97f3e8304ff05fe52282c33622b07b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Ursa, BIG Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,341 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed BIG Academy | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 67c | 987.47$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.01 | 7,892 | 50.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L | +182.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed BIG Academy | 23c | 666.38$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.49 | 2,057 | 41.5%853 W · 1,204 L | -50.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked BIG Academy | 40c | 521.13$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.33 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed BIG Academy | 27c | 451.04$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 2,429 | 44.6%1,083 W · 1,346 L | -63.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed BIG Academy | 39c | 359.75$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.73 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 63c | 310$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.47 | 6,466 | 42.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L | -78.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Ursa | 72c | 256.02$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 392 | 48.7%191 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked BIG Academy | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed BIG Academy | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 474 | 41.6%197 W · 277 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Ursa | 62c | 181.23$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked BIG Academy | 34c | 169.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ursa | 71c | 155.91$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 5,474 | 46.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed Ursa | 52c | 155.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 174 | 46.6%81 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed BIG Academy | 33c | 106.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 432 | 39.1%169 W · 263 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Ursa | 54c | 91.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed BIG Academy | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Ursa | 67c | 45.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed BIG Academy | 29c | 43.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked BIG Academy | 27c | 42.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed Ursa | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Ursa | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed BIG Academy | 39c | 33.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Ursa | 68c | 29.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 956 | 49.7%475 W · 481 L | -18.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Ursa | 60c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…b214backed BIG Academy | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 78c | 18.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG Academy - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG Academy (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 PlayoffsUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG Academy - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs BIG Academy (+1.5)Ursa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.