South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-01-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bc3280090c161751fc6ba5e33575725557d7543b473cf49d97a28bcbc517b64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 8c | 5,479$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.56 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed No | 0c | 5,096$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 24c | 3,632$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.04 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked No | 15c | 1,454$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.06 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 47c | 1,250$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.63 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 3c | 1,135$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 14c | 986.36$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.31 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 2c | 891$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Yes | 9c | 627.85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.09 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 10c | 568.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 49c | 483.95$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.96 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed91…8ce8backed No | 8c | 404.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed No | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 53c | 294.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.35 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 18c | 242$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 50c | 235$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.54 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 59c | 205$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 51c | 204.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 49c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.06 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 40c | 168.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…7c34backed Yes | 47c | 142.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Yes | 47c | 134.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked No | 15c | 115.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…2f2dbacked Yes | 49c | 101.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 51c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…b87dbacked Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 52c | 75.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 77c | 64.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 53c | 50.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 32c | 49.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed No | 52c | 39.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…f8c4backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 53c | 28.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 53c | 24.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 213 | 45.1%96 W · 117 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…4863backed Yes | 72c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-01-30?this page
- Will FC Juárez vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Juárez win on 2026-01-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.