MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c024fcaa0757ec5ba5c68fda697f8fe93e00f7bef0961ff59e580c915f8fce7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 487.52$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.39 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 370.37$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked New York Yankees | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed New York Yankees | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 1,299 | 56.7%737 W · 562 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed New York Yankees | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d88…8d8ebacked New York Yankees | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…47d8backed New York Yankees | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 46.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed New York Yankees | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41b…4609backed New York Yankees | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe6…5cdabacked Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
- Yankees vs. OriolesYankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.