College Football · resolved market
Will Louisville win the Sun Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c5868685df79cb4dcf11d600d6c1dea1136ace2adbfd614f33485675d6b23f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisvilleof Louisville, Washington
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x766a…2469backed Louisville | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…400ebacked Washington | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…d174backed Washington | 51c | 180$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…2f2abacked Louisville | 49c | 180$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebb…9991backed Louisville | 51c | 175$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…9279backed Washington | 49c | 175$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…de57backed Louisville | 51c | 175$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1e…df0abacked Washington | 49c | 175$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7f…a8a7backed Louisville | 51c | 175$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57be…bf41backed Washington | 49c | 175$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2355…47bfbacked Louisville | 49c | 172$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4625…dc15backed Washington | 51c | 172$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa385…bab1backed Louisville | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4610…b7a1backed Washington | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a5…3030backed Louisville | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc43e…142cbacked Louisville | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab7…b71ebacked Louisville | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4858…2b88backed Louisville | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c66…b4c0backed Louisville | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c9…d344backed Washington | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…37a2backed Washington | 49c | 170$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7870…f69fbacked Washington | 49c | 170$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39cf…1892backed Washington | 49c | 170$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7643backed Washington | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04a…8c7abacked Louisville | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabac…af49backed Louisville | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf110…27fabacked Louisville | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8e14backed Washington | 49c | 170$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99c…9730backed Louisville | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…a184backed Louisville | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb6…4fafbacked Washington | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…f19fbacked Washington | 49c | 170$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…a95ebacked Washington | 49c | 170$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…c649backed Washington | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f4f5backed Louisville | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2273…7c4fbacked Washington | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…db4dbacked Louisville | 51c | 166$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5a…eb16backed Washington | 49c | 166$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x065c…dab1backed Louisville | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…40a2backed Washington | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1f…a0f8backed Louisville | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…4cafbacked Washington | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba16…a29bbacked Louisville | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…7a1bbacked Washington | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…372ebacked Louisville | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…1cefbacked Washington | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d318backed Louisville | 49c | 147$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…86cdbacked Washington | 51c | 147$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9509…974fbacked Washington | 47c | 145$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcb…a079backed Washington | 51c | 145$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…909cbacked Louisville | 53c | 145$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e32…e77abacked Louisville | 49c | 145$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…0aabbacked Washington | 48c | 88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4c…5a94backed Louisville | 52c | 88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Louisville | 56c | 80.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Washington | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.