Tennis · resolved market
ITF Aldershot: Adithya Karunaratne vs Naiktha Bains
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d890aa762d9a7e8a0c639e86dcc0443b71c2a8d5e6d5a8d498152ca18aa64a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adithya Karunaratneof Adithya Karunaratne, Naiktha Bains
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Naiktha Bains | 44c | 5,672$2,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,509.42 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Adithya Karunaratne | 55c | 4,657$2,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.64 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Adithya Karunaratne | 41c | 404.88$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.88 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…428abacked Adithya Karunaratne | 66c | 197.23$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 283 | 48.1%136 W · 147 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Adithya Karunaratne | 70c | 176.79$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Naiktha Bains | 30c | 176.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Naiktha Bains | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…5269backed Naiktha Bains | 15c | 121.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…a6c0backed Naiktha Bains | 30c | 114.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Naiktha Bains | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Adithya Karunaratne | 76c | 110.47$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Adithya Karunaratne | 40c | 109$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…2d2ebacked Naiktha Bains | 46c | 103.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Naiktha Bains | 17c | 86.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Naiktha Bains | 30c | 75.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 443 | 49%217 W · 226 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Naiktha Bains | 32c | 74.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa63d…d405backed Adithya Karunaratne | 66c | 65.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Adithya Karunaratne | 68c | 62.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Naiktha Bains | 27c | 46.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 736 | 48.1%354 W · 382 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Naiktha Bains | 35c | 45.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ce2abacked Adithya Karunaratne | 71c | 44.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 215 | 72.6%156 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3113backed Adithya Karunaratne | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f2…9c52backed Adithya Karunaratne | 78c | 16.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.