Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $152-$154 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dcb6cc5f0eadf8c77999596e99994c3f72c2cff1030ad92aa71e4ee5921814a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,747 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5a…6e23backed Yes | 12c | 2,387$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b2…042cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,249$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe199…8e1ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,806$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a49…8916backed Yes | 20c | 1,373$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…53afbacked Yes | 12c | 1,229$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 28c | 744.1$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.13 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…f13abacked Yes | 14c | 662.87$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 79c | 449.5$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…c588backed Yes | 11c | 410.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…6410backed Yes | 11c | 201.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 149.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 15c | 73.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 68c | 58.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…babfbacked Yes | 34c | 53.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 74c | 38.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 75c | 15.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $152-$154 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?this page
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $148-$150 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $150-$152 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $154-$156 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $156-$158 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $158-$160 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $162-$164 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close at <$148 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.