Tennis · resolved market
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Casper Ruud vs Shintaro Mochizuki
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2df14b4622d8e138da4a2b4b50d0fc39940a1b5c0a2c13b72a0acb317d7abd7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruudof Ruud, Mochizuki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Ruud | 72c | 6,999$5,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,929.84 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Ruud | 72c | 3,131$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.78 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mochizuki | 41c | 3,063$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.19 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Mochizuki | 28c | 2,892$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.21 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Mochizuki | 29c | 1,675$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mochizuki | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ruud | 56c | 493.06$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.19 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Mochizuki | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Ruud | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Mochizuki | 29c | 172.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Ruud | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Mochizuki | 29c | 142.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Ruud | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Mochizuki | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Ruud | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Ruud | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…e407backed Mochizuki | 28c | 50.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Ruud | 65c | 23.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ruud | 68c | 17.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.