Tennis · resolved market
Ugo Humbert vs. Francisco Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e6f4d963dd40597065ff4bff839fec9689529fd4f2c3c495a4c7b4622eb623d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $882 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Over 2.5 | 49c | 315.04$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 257.04$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 664 | 44.6%296 W · 368 L | +29.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 233.12$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 136.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 7,100 | 49.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L | +107.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c9…476dbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ugo Humbert vs. Francisco Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Humbert vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Miami Open: Ugo Humbert vs Francisco CerundoloFrancisco Cerundolo won
- Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs CerundoloCerundolo won
- Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)Cerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.