Tennis · resolved market
Wuning 2: Keegan Smith vs Enzo Aguiard
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e87ff84a603aa7fbba25a5fadd5790e6cfde69224dc66d651ea238e955b2ceb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keegan Smithof Keegan Smith, Enzo Aguiard
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Enzo Aguiard | 18c | 4,427$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.03 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Enzo Aguiard | 15c | 2,857$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.16 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Enzo Aguiard | 21c | 755.01$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.74 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Enzo Aguiard | 24c | 752.66$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.35 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Enzo Aguiard | 4c | 653.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa534…c089backed Keegan Smith | 70c | 520.8$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.64 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803f…b6b3backed Enzo Aguiard | 19c | 478.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Enzo Aguiard | 17c | 467.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Keegan Smith | 73c | 357.38$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.18 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Enzo Aguiard | 10c | 332.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Keegan Smith | 79c | 326.81$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84bd…34d0backed Enzo Aguiard | 31c | 241.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Keegan Smith | 76c | 199.17$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Enzo Aguiard | 14c | 182.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 405 | 48.1%195 W · 210 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Enzo Aguiard | 24c | 173.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Enzo Aguiard | 14c | 157.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 506 | 44.9%227 W · 279 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Enzo Aguiard | 10c | 134.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Keegan Smith | 70c | 105.21$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Enzo Aguiard | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…79bebacked Enzo Aguiard | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb883…3994backed Enzo Aguiard | 19c | 80.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 215 | 49.8%107 W · 108 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe996…308bbacked Enzo Aguiard | 19c | 78.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Enzo Aguiard | 26c | 74.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Enzo Aguiard | 17c | 62.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Keegan Smith | 70c | 50.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 193 | 44.6%86 W · 107 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…3f92backed Keegan Smith | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 224 | 82.6%185 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 80cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Keegan Smith | 71c | 23.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 149 | 58.4%87 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Keegan Smith | 61c | 20.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.