Commodities · resolved market
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0586fac524131cca823a0f215d3e8ce0856fc243616579af5a8bc1805972ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2630…81f5backed Up | 0c | 5,904$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Down | 64c | 1,107$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.35 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x586f…b928backed Up | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 4c | 929.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Up | 34c | 860.59$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.47 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed Down | 25c | 599.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.93 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Up | 8c | 399.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240c…040ebacked Up | 75c | 209.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…6135backed Down | 27c | 204.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.09 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…43e2backed Up | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae87…5bafbacked Up | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeab…4997backed Up | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +214.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2053…b14abacked Up | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Down | 68c | 97.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfad…052ebacked Up | 76c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Up | 76c | 58.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Down | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…eb61backed Down | 41c | 35.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7097…41a5backed Down | 63c | 31.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…5525backed Up | 61c | 24.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Down | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6898…5609backed Down | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.