Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Maria Sakkari
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f67b92d4038251812a6f3524fe7a18ec641f8bf9906a03a0a7cb5bc8c2ae904
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maiaof Maia, Sakkari
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Sakkari | 28c | 4,458$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.33 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Maia | 62c | 3,140$1,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.37 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Maia | 72c | 2,008$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Sakkari | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sakkari | 59c | 915.52$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.33 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Sakkari | 59c | 548.78$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.78 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431b…1d9cbacked Maia | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Maia | 40c | 296.51$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.51 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…4f78backed Maia | 41c | 292.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.68 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Maia | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Maia | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…f395backed Maia | 43c | 175$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Sakkari | 31c | 98.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…4d8ebacked Sakkari | 62c | 93.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Maia | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Maia | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Sakkari | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Maia | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sakkari | 59c | 26.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Maia | 68c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Maia | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.