Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Heracles Almelo win on 2026-01-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f731953950abb9deeaa400b30b93d2b9dcf32bbc66d61cc43fa57dd0fbdcc8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 9c | 1,455$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 123 | 19.5%24 W · 99 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 77c | 812.99$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.86 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 79c | 553.98$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 23c | 511.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.75 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 7c | 502.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 10c | 403.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 14c | 323.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Yes | 22c | 290.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed No | 79c | 239.13$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 183.47$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 78c | 171.52$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed No | 79c | 126.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 16c | 104$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c06dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Yes | 20c | 93.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Yes | 21c | 76.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…7bbdbacked Yes | 19c | 67.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 77c | 66.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa231…ea5ebacked No | 80c | 51.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 77c | 45.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b0…07bfbacked No | 79c | 38.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 77c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 137 | 70.8%97 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc40d…4813backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Heracles Almelo win on 2026-01-11?this page
- Will Sparta Rotterdam vs. Heracles Almelo end in a draw?No won
- Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-01-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.