Premier League · resolved market
FA Cup: Leyton Orient vs. Manchester City (To Advance)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f8d72d8db89ffd40e6f20057ef8cc945e2ca37eb6c147b4d3570a616fddd1b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Man Cityof Leyton, Man City
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Leyton | 9c | 5,504$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.59 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Leyton | 6c | 3,016$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.07 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Leyton | 8c | 2,892$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.32 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Leyton | 5c | 1,507$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.37 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Leyton | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Leyton | 20c | 814.14$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.87 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Man City | 75c | 670.17$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.54 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Leyton | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Leyton | 14c | 579.41$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 91 | 11%10 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Man City | 77c | 212.38$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Man City | 75c | 154.55$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x176b…a16fbacked Man City | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5826…d9f1backed Leyton | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d99…cf63backed Leyton | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Man City | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.