Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Albany vs. UMBC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fec7f1a9d2f4c06b8b8a4ae6a67523e0028d827f6e63729ce8b3f58111ca073
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Albanyof Albany, UMBC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Albany | 52c | 2,281$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.17 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed UMBC | 48c | 2,000$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.46 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2f…3c79backed Albany | 49c | 237$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…7a79backed UMBC | 50c | 234$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…6720backed UMBC | 51c | 234$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42bd…7f6bbacked Albany | 50c | 203$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ae…478fbacked UMBC | 45c | 187$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…e203backed Albany | 55c | 174$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7a…dcacbacked Albany | 55c | 172$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189a…e37dbacked UMBC | 45c | 159$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac7…e54fbacked UMBC | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68b6…7544backed UMBC | 55c | 128$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…b9dbbacked UMBC | 50c | 123$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Albany | 53c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…1e6cbacked Albany | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…1bdbbacked Albany | 49c | 86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a56cbacked Albany | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd40e…ca83backed UMBC | 51c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3952…3675backed UMBC | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Albany | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed UMBC | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Albany | 45c | 46.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…5d11backed Albany | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d58…fd3cbacked UMBC | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc778…dd15backed UMBC | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7b…ff8bbacked UMBC | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…dda6backed UMBC | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…eaadbacked UMBC | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236a…ab9fbacked Albany | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x999b…0162backed Albany | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb958…7afabacked Albany | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fc…e2b1backed Albany | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fd…b58cbacked UMBC | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f5…b0d4backed Albany | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…4761backed UMBC | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…0834backed Albany | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d7…502bbacked Albany | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…62ffbacked UMBC | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9046…91dbbacked UMBC | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…3820backed UMBC | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…62edbacked UMBC | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c12…a4f5backed Albany | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…1ce6backed Albany | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316e…301dbacked Albany | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…0946backed Albany | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebae…a1f5backed UMBC | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4c…63e1backed Albany | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5855…c5e8backed UMBC | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6c…91c6backed UMBC | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…c397backed Albany | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3434…fca6backed Albany | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf963…20f8backed UMBC | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c7…b2f7backed Albany | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d76…283fbacked Albany | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1450…2359backed UMBC | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f7…10b7backed UMBC | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7838…01c2backed Albany | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd5…b95ebacked UMBC | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa943…48aabacked Albany | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…eb63backed UMBC | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…5608backed Albany | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…cbc9backed Albany | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…6351backed Albany | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8305…5712backed UMBC | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…fab7backed UMBC | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a31…7a82backed Albany | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…fb3fbacked UMBC | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.