Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x301acea20a0ce7260fdf0ca898bedcd589c5a4170f893ccdaeb36b24be98e30c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 26c | 683.22$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.56 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 372.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 12c | 293.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 73c | 292.68$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.02 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 27c | 273.27$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 241.41$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 20c | 188.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 11c | 154$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 29c | 143.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 141.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…6bcbbacked Yes | 9c | 119.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 13c | 114.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 101.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 18c | 90.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 18c | 79.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 22c | 64.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 52.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 40.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 38.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 63c | 34.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 68c | 24.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 70c | 21.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 74c | 15.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.