Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $370-$380 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30429c5981f6b5822555bc58c79d1842da66d4a2752b1a2f4efe0d96a123910b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 25c | 2,249$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.09 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 58c | 2,187$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.93 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 2c | 809.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 652.8$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.75 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 75c | 641.66$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.48 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -7.5wins | -0.26per pick | 50cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 188.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 7c | 166.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed No | 71c | 138.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 10c | 119.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 56c | 112.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 77c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6253…fe57backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…00e7backed No | 33c | 43.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked No | 54c | 38.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 75c | 30.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -6.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked No | 75c | 13.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 53cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $370-$380 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $350-$360 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $360-$370 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $380-$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400-$410 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.