Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $360-$370 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63a904c5b147e1234e347fd554ea4b5b7afe0b3af68ba15b41fcae2962f5ca8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,322$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.02 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…d001backed No | 78c | 774.13$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x350c…8955backed Yes | 22c | 774.13$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 38c | 625.6$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.42 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cd…3f5bbacked No | 78c | 576.41$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…4943backed Yes | 22c | 576.41$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…bd20backed No | 78c | 428.67$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…7ae6backed Yes | 22c | 428.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 5c | 225.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 186.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 161.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 69c | 108.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 70c | 100.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Yes | 41c | 85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6253…fe57backed Yes | 35c | 57.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 56.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 52c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked No | 69c | 54.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked Yes | 27c | 50.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 40c | 49.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e4…0618backed Yes | 66c | 44.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…00e7backed No | 61c | 40.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…6742backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 38.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 40c | 38.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 35c | 37.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +175.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…34ebbacked No | 60c | 35.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e03…d995backed Yes | 55c | 27.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 68c | 25.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 73c | 24.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $360-$370 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $350-$360 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $370-$380 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $380-$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400-$410 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 30 – Apr 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.