Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x304e767767fc4c27413f7a18693a64cd757ddd4a86124943ccf62a0d23a05fad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 60c | 448.78$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.53 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 33c | 223.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.96 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 41c | 205.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 14c | 178.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…a12cbacked Yes | 58c | 177.69$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 175.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.69 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 133.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 115.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 80c | 108.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 77.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd455…a1b2backed Yes | 20c | 70.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 28c | 57.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0411…c4eabacked No | 32c | 47.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 43.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 54c | 35.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8503…bd5fbacked Yes | 34c | 32.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…d8a1backed No | 77c | 25.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4105…0cbabacked Yes | 64c | 22.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…da6abacked Yes | 79c | 21.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a77…50e6backed No | 77c | 19.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 15.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…48c4backed Yes | 79c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or higher on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.