South American Leagues · resolved market
Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Peñarol: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3055d0f0ac68d4a8b388ca6b4462ec7a81a16ec9ea0bec38fb4b650d95eb640a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed Yes | 47c | 2,120$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.39 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 54c | 1,461$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.77 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 40c | 432.37$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.31 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 47c | 277.98$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.33 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 53c | 224.47$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.97 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…6796backed No | 51c | 165.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 53c | 112.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 53c | 112.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 53c | 112.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked No | 53c | 112.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 53c | 112.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 53c | 112.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked No | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…eeb1backed Yes | 49c | 64.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 53c | 64.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Yes | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 53c | 53.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 53c | 53.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Yes | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 56c | 46.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed No | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…ce7fbacked Yes | 47c | 30.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 53c | 28.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed No | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 53c | 23.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…9e71backed Yes | 55c | 18.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Peñarol: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Peñarol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Peñarol: O/U 2.5Under won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Peñarol: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CA Peñarol (-1.5)Independiente Santa Fe won
- Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)CA Peñarol won
- Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-2.5)CA Peñarol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.