South American Leagues · resolved market
Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Peñarol: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dc249e9f090c68984e09653617c4ec7cd61c7c2da589439860347d92fba4a96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 46c | 5,082$2,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,337.72 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 4,862$2,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 53c | 1,098$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.33 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 1,093$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.24 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 917.47$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.89 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 48c | 605.09$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.44 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 29c | 532.91$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.29 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 66c | 397.67$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.21 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 372.56$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.44 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 64c | 305.75$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.07 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Over | 30c | 228.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 65c | 166.23$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 49c | 158.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 62c | 157.76$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 17c | 135.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 28c | 123.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 54c | 108.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked Under | 66c | 103.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ca…5ed4backed Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 34c | 99.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 68c | 89.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 72c | 76.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 53c | 73.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Under | 74c | 66.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 54c | 62.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 34c | 58.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 20c | 57.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…1a89backed Under | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 49c | 41.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 34c | 41.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Under | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…ce7fbacked Over | 40c | 36.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…540dbacked Under | 62c | 19.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…30cfbacked Under | 76c | 13.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Peñarol: O/U 2.5this page
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Peñarol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Peñarol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Peñarol: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CA Peñarol (-1.5)Independiente Santa Fe won
- Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)CA Peñarol won
- Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-2.5)CA Peñarol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.