Australian A League · resolved market
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30629ce80bd74538610a61114aa8aaa51a4ecd831cdb8b6a497beeeb85bd8d2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x916f…53babacked Under | 39c | 12,335$4,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,525.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 7,531$4,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,580.66 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 61c | 4,200$2,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,562 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Under | 40c | 2,025$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Over | 60c | 1,496$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.75 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 46c | 1,085$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.47 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 50c | 437.5$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.75 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 298.8$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.86 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 42c | 223.78$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.79 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 63c | 180.95$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 29c | 179.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 60c | 135$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Over | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 61c | 109.62$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…6659backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 61c | 80.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 61c | 79.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 49c | 63.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 61c | 51.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…b798backed Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 44c | 41.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 49c | 34.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5c…7b2bbacked Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-2.5)Sydney FC won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.