Tennis · resolved market
ITF Vaasa: Markus Molder vs Matthias Uwe Kask
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30c5456701d86042dd41ac7e1c87c4e011b6a70a860c5b857a86116c8cc26d75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Markus Molderof Markus Molder, Matthias Uwe Kask
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Matthias Uwe Kask | 48c | 525$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Markus Molder | 52c | 525$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…d7f6backed Markus Molder | 74c | 242.31$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Matthias Uwe Kask | 26c | 235.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Matthias Uwe Kask | 24c | 152.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Markus Molder | 76c | 150.96$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Markus Molder | 74c | 134.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Matthias Uwe Kask | 26c | 127.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Markus Molder | 74c | 54.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 379 | 44.6%169 W · 210 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…8ff7backed Matthias Uwe Kask | 26c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 394 | 43.9%173 W · 221 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Markus Molder | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5134…abeebacked Markus Molder | 78c | 21.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.